Luck and Baseball

Like in every game, there is a lot of luck involved in baseball.  Skill is not the only determinant of whether you win or lose.

One thing that has always fascinated me is the relationship between Earned Run Average (ERA) and winning.  The ERA is a pitching stat calculated by dividing the number of earned runs allowed by the number of innings pitched and multiplying by nine.  The result is a number representing how many runs a pitcher is expected to give up in a game if allowed to pitch the full nine innings.  You would think that a pitcher who gives up a lot of runs will lose most of his games, and a pitcher who doesn’t give up many runs will win most.  But that is often not the case.

Take the Miami Marlins in 2016.  Near the end of the season, the team had a collective 3.97 ERA.  That was a relatively good number to have.  But they had a losing record of 76-78.

Then you had a team like the Texas Rangers with a 4.41 ERA near the end of the 2016 season.  They had a 91-63 record and went to the postseason.

When you look at individual players, the differences look even more unfair.  Just look at Atlanta Braves pitcher Julio Teheran in 2016.  He owned a 3.10 ERA but had a 6-10 record.  Los Angeles Angels pitcher Jered Weaver had an even 12-12 record around the same time but had a terrible 5.20 ERA.

No, baseball is not always fair.  Like in any game, to win you have to have both skill and luck.  Sometimes you don’t even need skill.