Who will be the next Heroes of Baseball?

There are players who will definitely join the MLB Hall of Fame after they retire. They’ve already accumulated the necessary stats, played in many All-Star games, and put in their ten years of service. All they have to do is steer clear of scandals and retire to claim their spot in Cooperstown.

With my choices of top prospects, I attempt to identify all of the future Hall of Famers years before they are actually inducted into the Hall of Fame. But what is the earliest we can identify future Hall of Famers?

In this section, I try to identify future Hall of Famers before the players even arrive in the Major Leagues. I do it by a combination of looking at the history of draft picks, combing through minor league statistics, and profiling the early careers of Hall of Fame players. After combing through years of statistics and data, I’ve found a few patterns. It all boils down to “dominance at an early age among peers” is the best indicator of future success. For hitters, it typically means hitting for a high on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) as one of the youngest players in their respective league. For pitchers, it’s usually having a high strikeouts per nine innings rate (SO/9) as one of the youngest players in the league.

For many years now, I’ve performed a yearly ritual of analyzing the data and choosing players who I deem most likely to succeed. I’ve recently (October 2025) streamlined the selection process. Here are my raw lists, with the percentage indicating the player’s likelihood of someday being part of a Major League All-Star team.

2025

1. 71% Aiva Arquette
2. 67% Wehiwa Aloy
3. 67% Alex Lodise
4. 64% Eli Willits
5. 55% Carter Jensen
6. 55% Luke Adams
7. 54% Ethan Holliday
8. 50% Kevin McGonigle
9. 50% Steele Hall

2024

1. 92% Kristian Campbell
2. 71% JJ Wetherholt
3. 67% Charlie Condon
4. 64% Travis Bazzana
5. 55% James Wood
6. 55% Christian Moore
7. 50% Roman Anthony
8. 50% Konnor Griffin
9. 45% Deyvison De Los Santos

2023

1. 73% Dylan Crews
2. 67% Paul Skenes
3. 58% Walker Jenkins
4. 55% Elly De La Cruz
5. 55% Junior Caminero
6. 54% Max Clark
7. 50% Coby Mayo
8. 50% Noble Meyer
9. 45% Thomas Saggese

2022

1. 92% Corbin Carroll
2. 79% Gunnar Henderson
3. 73% Druw Jones
4. 67% Yoshinobu Yamamoto
5. 67% Ivan Melendez
6. 58% Elijah Green
7. 55% Sal Frelick
8. 55% Kyle Manzardo
9. 54% Jackson Holliday

2021

1. 67% Kevin Kopps
2. 64% Henry Davis
3. 58% Colton Cowser
4. 55% MJ Melendez
5. 55% Brennen Davis
6. 54% Jackson Jobe
7. 50% Gabriel Moreno
8. 50% Kumar Rocker
9. 45% Julio Rodriguez

2020

1. 73% Heston Kjerstad
2. 71% Nick Gonzales
3. 64% Spencer Torkelson
4. 58% Austin Martin
5. 50% Reid Detmers
6. 50% Zac Veen
7. 33% Jared Kelley
8. 31% Emerson Hancock
9. 31% Cade Cavalli

2019

1. 92% Luis Robert
2. 79% Gavin Lux
3. 73% Bobby Witt Jr.
4. 67% Adley Rutschman
5. 58% Riley Greene
6. 55% Kevin Padlo
7. 55% Jo Adell
8. 50% Nolan Jones
9. 50% Shea Langeliers

2018

1. 92% Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2. 73% Joey Bart
3. 67% Andrew Vaughn
4. 67% Brady Singer
5. 58% Jonathan India
6. 55% Eloy Jimenez
7. 50% Kyler Murray
8. 45% Yordan Alvarez
9. 45% Freddy Peralta

2017

1. 100% Shohei Ohtani
2. 92% Ronald Acuna Jr.
3. 71% Pavin Smith
4. 67% Brendan McKay
5. 64% Royce Lewis
6. 58% Corey Ray
7. 55% Austin Riley
8. 50% Austin Hays
9. 50% Keston Hiura

2016

1. 92% Alex Bregman
2. 79% Yoan Moncada
3. 73% Nick Senzel
4. 67% Kyle Lewis
5. 67% Seth Beer
6. 64% Mickey Moniak
7. 58% Kyle Tucker
8. 55% Byron Buxton
9. 55% Tyler O’Neill